Declines likely in price of gold and silver futures

The price has to move past $1,980 to indicate resumption of the long-term uptrend.

The consolidation in price witnessed in September spilled over to October, with precious metals being confined to a narrow trading range. The firm trend in the U.S. dollar, along with the news flow pertaining to the spread of COVID-19 and the hopes for an economic stimulus in the U.S., played a key role in influencing the price of precious metals in October.

Comex gold closed 0.8% lower in October to settle at $1,879.9 an ounce. Comex silver eked out a marginal gain of 0.7% to settle at $23.65 an ounce. In the domestic market, MCX gold futures rose 0.7% to ₹50,699 per 10 gm. MCX silver futures climbed 1.6% to ₹60,685 per kg.

Comex gold was confined to a narrow trading range. There is no change to the short-term outlook for gold. Comex gold is expected to rule weak and a decline to $1,825-1,840 appears likely. The price has to move past $1,980 to indicate resumption of the long-term uptrend. Until then, the premise is that the short-term cool-off phase is at play and a drop to $1,825-1,840 is a likely outcome. Comex silver too was confined to a trading range. Comex silver is likely to drift lower in the near-term.

A fall to $21.5-22 an ounce appears likely. MCX gold too has been consolidating in a tight range of ₹49,000-51,500. This is likely to persist until the price gets past ₹51,600 per 10 gm. A fall below ₹49,000 would impart weakness; the price could then drift to ₹47,000-47,500. Until the price rises above ₹51,500, a slide to ₹47,500 would be the short-term outlook.

MCX silver prices are likely to remain rangebound; a breakout from ₹56,000-64,200 would set the tone for the next big move. Above ₹64,200, MCX silver could rally to ₹68,000-69,000. Below ₹56,000, the price could slip to ₹51,000-51,500.

(The author is a Chennai-based analyst and trader. This is not meant to be trading or investment advice)

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